Tue: Not so perfect

August 18th, 2008Mark Dowsett
in
Aug 19 2008 - 09:40

Forecast

Forecast Period: 
16:00
Surface Wind Direction: 
NE
Surface Wind Speed: 
16km/h
Wind Direction at Top of Usable Lift: 
NE
Wind Speed at Top of Usable Lift: 
23km/h
Buoyancy / Sheer Ratio: 
3
Rating of Local Soaring: 
0
Rating For going XC: 
0

Another promising forecast gone down the toilet! I have no idea on what makes these forecasts different...all I know (or think I know) is that the RUC forecast is the most accurate...I suppose that is why they only publish it the morning-of.

I used the NAM forecast model last night...and compare the b/s ratio here of the NAM (left) vs the RUC (right) from this morning:

The NAM makes the day look perfect...the RUC tells the real story (maybe, who knows)...at this point (11AM), I believe the RUC....if you use the LITA forecast model (Look-In-The-Air) there are no cu's, COLD (good) but the high for today is only 21¬?C.

Have faith I suppose...it's supposed to get warmer as the week goes on approaching 30 by Sat. As Bellerby mentioned to me, that storm last night should help clear some of the crap out of here.